A Deep Sigh of Relief, Although Nobody Won

The General Election brought a strange and frustrating result from the voters: in short, no one won. Briefly, the PP got the most seats, but even with the support of Vox, it wasn’t enough. If anyone could be said to have triumphed, perhaps, it was those who didn’t want a far-right presence in the government.

The PP won 136 seats (176 needed to win). They increased their vote handsomely from 89 deputies in 2019. Their potential partner – Vox – fell from last time’s 52 to just 33 seats – giving a combination for the right-wing of 169.

Not. Quite. There.

Maybe, says Feijóo, the PSOE will abstain, and let us govern.

What, without Vox, you mean? With just 136 seats out of 350?

The PSOE also increased its number of parliamentarians, if only by two. Their numbers now stand at 122. Their natural ally – they’re joined at the hip – is Sumar, bringing them a further 31.

Looked at one way, PSOE/Sumar is 153.

Also. Not. Enough.

Thus, one must rely on the ‘independents’. Again. That’s to say, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, CCa and UPN.

The percentage of votes on Sunday was 70.4%. Of the sum of votes, the PP took 33% and the PSOE took 31.7% (the large disparity in deputies – 136 versus 122 – is down to the peculiar system used to adjudicate seats).

So now what?

Will the various regional minnows try to charge too high a price to allow Pedro Sánchez to return as president? Will there be fresh elections this autumn? Will Pedro Sánchez unaccountably allow Alberto Núñez Feijóo to be president with a minority government? Will the army take over (just kidding)?

The key to Pedro Sánchez returning to power is the necessary support (or at least, abstention) of Junts Per Catalunya, the party of exiled Carles Puigdemont now led by Míriam Nogueras. How expensive is that going to be? The most likely answer to that question is: another referendum for Catalonian independence. 

One final detail will be published on Friday - the Spaniards living abroad who voted. Will this change things? Possibly. 

The count-down begins, with the King inviting the parliamentary spokespeople to forward a candidate for president on August 21st, with the investiture in early September. Maybe.

No one wants another election, but what else is there? Maybe someone will blink first.

At the tepid victory party of the Partido Popular in their headquarters in Madrid, some voices were heard calling ‘Ayuso, Ayuso, Ayuso…’. How long can Feijóo last with the conservative’s secret and unstoppable weapon waiting impatiently in the aisles?  

Meanwhile, the Presidency of the Council of the European Union remains in Pedro Sánchez’ safe hands (no doubt, for the duration).