The Andalusian Elections: What to Expect

 
The Andalusian elections are coming around, a little earlier than anticipated, to cash in on the rise in support for the Partido Popular after its latest defenestration – as the penny finally dropped that the party leader Pablo Casado was a liability while the new leader, the unpronounceable Alberto Núñez Feijóo, was a far surer bet.

The Junta de Andalucia, the regional government based firmly in Seville, is led by the capable Juanma Moreno, who currently rules the region with the support of Ciudadanos (and the blessing of Vox). He is looked on as a moderate conservative. Before Juanma won the election in December 2018, the region had been run by the PSOE-A for forty years, and corruption, nepotism, and the other sins of government were much in evidence, indeed, two of the three socialist presidents – Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán – are now awaiting confirmation of their sentences for a slew of misdeeds, led by the ERE Inquiry.

Facing Juanma Moreno PP – the certain winner short of a surprise – we find the new and improved PSOE-A led by the ex-mayor of Seville, Juan Espadas, who seems a decent sort (although, as the regional minister for housing from 2010 to 2013, he may be remembered without pleasure by those who suffered with ‘illegal properties’). Whether he is capable of bringing back home the vote is probably unlikely. The reason is that many ordinary socialists have switched either into the Podemos fraternity, or, in Andalucía, into the magic of the Vox party, which provides a type of politics which always looks good to those at the bottom: racism, flag-waving and cant.

Thus today, Vox can count on 20% of the vote. Their candidate is Mercedes Olona who is – as Wiki says – ‘known for her virulent criticism of the government of Pedro Sánchez, accusing it of "genocide" for its management of the Covid-19 pandemic or of wanting to impose the Venezuelan "chavist model" in Spain. She favours the establishment of a government of "national salvation" involving the army. She is opposed to laws on LGBT or gender violence’. A handful indeed.

The Ciudadanos party are without doubt washed up, and their 21 seats will likely be reduced to one or maybe two. Juan Marín, the capable regional minister for tourism, is their candidate.

The other contender is inelegantly named Por Andalucía: the mishmash of Izquierda Unida, Más País, Podemos and other minnows. While the lefties eventually agreed on a coordinated candidature, to be headed up by the IU politician Inmaculada Nieto, the papers from Podemos were delivered ‘a few minutes late’ (sic) to the electoral commission and there is now doubt as to whether the Podemos contingent can legally stand in the coalition or must go it alone.

The outcome for these elections on June 19th (where the 710,000 or so foreign residents of course may not vote) will likely leave the PP in the lead with somewhere around 50 seats and the PSOE-A with 32. Vox would be third with 17 and the Por Andalucía lefties with 10.

With a count of 55 needed to reach a majority, the PP will likely have to treat with Vox this time around. What will be Vox’ price?