Tuesday 25 February 2020

The Effect of the Coronavirus on Tourism


From The New York Times here: ‘The Coronavirus crisis that has engulfed China could sicken one leading cruise line and the air travel industry, companies say. Cruise operator Carnival Corporation indicated the outbreak may cause its earnings to take on water this year, while Boeing officials predicted it would stall the air cargo industry and cut into airline revenues...’.
There is little doubt that, barring an unlikely rapid solution, the Coronavirus will bite deeply into the world economy this spring and, nearer to home, the Spanish tourist industry. Who will want to share a cruise with a large number of passengers, any one of which might cause a serious outbreak and quarantine? Better to cancel and plan for next year. Who, too, will risk an uncomfortable and cramped aeroplane flight, fearful of every cough from a fellow-passenger and a nervous wait in some well-travelled airport?
Figures out so far this week as the tourist industry begins to take stock: ‘The Coronavirus effect: airlines will lose US $ 29.3 billion this year’.
‘It’s not only Chinese tourists, business travellers, and property buyers who’re not showing up, but also travellers from all over the world who’ve gotten second thoughts about sitting on a plane...’, says Wolf Street here.
This is moving quickly. A hotel in Adeje, Tenerife, with 1,000 tourists was put into quarantine on Tuesday.
As we panic, and storm the supermarkets, visions of an apocalyptic end in our minds, a major study concludes that the Coronavirus has a low lethality, perhaps as low as three in a thousand. Around 95% of patients will recover without any complications.

The main casualty will be the tourist industry – which accounted for around 15% of Spain’s GDP in 2018.
Perhaps, as a beneficial side-effect, we can anticipate the Spanish authorities looking a little more kindly on those foreign residents who live here full time, modestly contributing to the economy.

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