Light at the End of the Tunnel

What would another president have done? '...But Sánchez is stubborn and wants sole command. He demonstrated this in his fight against his own party and now, in addition, he governs in coalition with those who will not put ahead of the scientists the pressures of Big Business and those of the conservative media....'

The de-escalation of the Stay at Home rules is coming along slowly and cautiously. Children under 14 were allowed out as from last Sunday (with a responsible adult and for a short period, observing safety rules) and now it appears that from this weekend the rest of us can also enjoy a walk. But if those infection numbers start to rise, we’ll be back behind the front door soon enough and getting ready for a fresh marathon of watching TV serials.

We read with cautious hope that ‘Sánchez will maintain the state of alarm until the end of May as he takes steps towards the de-escalation’.

The fear is, of course, that it could all come crashing back, like the Spanish flu which began in January 1918, becoming far more virulent as time went on and only receding in December 1920 (wiki).

The message from Fernando Simón, the scratchy-voiced Government expert, is to be careful and not flout the safety rules as ‘a step backwards will be a terrible thing to undergo’ (video). Antena3 says that German virologists claim that we are at the beginning, not the end, of the coronavirus pandemic.

So far, says El País, the experiment seems to be working, with ‘no generalised or serious cases of non-compliance of the rules’.

But, the warm weather… the beaches… the thirst for company and a beer…

One of the apologists for a speedy return to normal is the regional leader Juanma Moreno, the President of Andalucía. The region has seen relatively fewer infections than other areas (34 per 100,000 as against national average of 138), and understandably worries about its tourism. ‘Andalucía should be the first region to return to normality’, he says.

Nationally (and more responsibly), Pedro Sánchez ‘will avoid setting dates for de-escalation measures’ (here) but in a televised speech on Tuesday, he explained the new plans to gradually open up Spain once again. The Olive Press explains here the process, with the caveat that ‘the de-escalation will be ‘gradual and asymmetrical’, done so on a provincial or island basis, depending on the curve of the coronavirus’.  

However, with luck, we should be back to normal (más o menos) by the beginning of July.

For small business, a gradual opening, with (for example) ‘the inside of restaurants to open for table service with capacity limit reduced to a third’ (Phase Two) is not going to inspire confidence since "The whole business model, the whole point of a restaurant, is to get as many people as possible into the space on a given night," Edouardo Jordan, owner of JuneBaby and other restaurants in Seattle, tells the NYTimes.

Frustration but caution. Let us not be revisited with a second and more dangerous return of the Coronavirus.

A Time to Live, a Time to Die

"When a society regrets the economic loss more than the loss of life, it doesn't need a virus, it is already sick." Mohamad Safa

We’ve seen clips of American freedom-fans (with their submachine guns) gathering in packs outside City Hall and calling for the right to ignore quarantine rules (or guidelines, depending on where they are). ‘These are great people’, says Trump here. They will vote for him in November, they say, those who manage to stay alive until then.

We’ve seen Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro smother a cough as he tells his fans not to fear crowds.

We see our boy Santiago Abascal call for all quarantine to be lifted in Spain forthwith.

Who do these leaders speak for – the ordinary people or the captains of industry?

Certainly we are heading for the Mother of all Recessions. Worse, no doubt, the longer we stay inside; yet, worse too, if we come out too early.

Politics is more or less following the same division. The left seeks to save lives (they’ve not done a particularly good job of this in Spain), the right seeks to save jobs, the economy and, in short, capital. If you can’t eat, they say, you’ll die anyway.

But, answers the left, the simple choices are poor and alive, or rich and dead. Politics. This division is creating huge tensions, which spills out into a non-collaboration policy from the opposition. A policy which not only weakens the country, it also weakens its response to the coronavirus.

There will be some gentle loosening of restrictions in the coming weeks. Children up to the age of 14 will be allowed out (briefly, with face-masks, and under parental supervision) from April 27th (El País in English here) and, further ‘…there will be a “cautious and progressive” de-escalation of confinement measures from May 11th’. But, does letting us out earlier carry the risk that we are going to end up being in quarantine for longer (HBO’s John Oliver here)? It’s a bit like the storyline for Jaws – the resort needs to open again…

Of course, no one knows. There’s no vaccine. There’s only hope against the worst. Perhaps the plague will return after the summer, or we shall slowly build up a resistance, or maybe it will mutate into something worse

The far-right (and pro-business) Zero Hedge asks here ‘What will you do if they try to extend Covid-19 lockdowns into next year?’ Jeez, that’s a hard one. It notes ‘…These lockdowns may be slowing down the spread of the virus to a certain extent, but they are also absolutely crushing economic activity…’.

The maverick American politician Ron Paul pens a piece called ‘what if the lockdown was all a big mistake?’ here.

A regular presence on BoT is Marc Stücklin who has just recovered from a three-week bout with Covid-19. He says ‘…Although I understand the need for an initial lockdown to give the health system a chance to prepare, not least to give medical staff a chance to catch and recover from the virus before they are overwhelmed with sick people coughing all over them, I fear the cure will end up worse than the disease. An economic depression will come at a high price in terms of human health and happiness…’.

On the other hand, the left-leaning Common Dreams says ‘…We must protect ourselves and others, especially the most vulnerable. Solidarity and common sense dictate that we change what up until now has been considered “normal” behaviour…’.

Some regions in Spain have had fewer cases of coronavirus, and they lean towards easing up on their restrictions. Andalucía is one such and the president Juanma Moreno says that the hospitals are now coping but businesses are not.

A map of the incidences by regions is here…

 

Cuts in Tourism

Tourism seems to be one of the largest losers for this year. In short, there won’t be hardly anyone travelling by air (or sea) in the remains of 2020, thanks to the coronavirus. It’s not just the consideration that no one wants to be cooped up in a metal coffin (coughing) flying through the skies from one airport to another, followed by a bus ride and two weeks sharing the same hotel restaurant and swimming pool with strangers, or of course to be trapped in a cruise-liner with two thousand others and the people in the next cabin with runny noses.

Oh, the local businesses will be more anxious than ever to welcome what trade they can find, but they will be forced to adopt government restrictions which will put a large dent in their takings. Just for an example – the distance between tables.

Many businesses in the service sector will go bust, including many/most of those foreign-owned bars and restaurants, which may be paying over-the-top rents to inflexible local landlords, and who rely primarily on tourism.

From La Ser comes:  ‘The European Union advises against "booking" and the summer holidays for "July and August"’ . It also notes that ‘According to Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, the isolation of the elderly could be extended "until the end of the year"’.

While some Spanish voices turn hopefully towards an increase in domestic tourism in 2020, again, the prospect won't offer much encouragement to the foreign-owned bars and restaurants on the costas.

Certainly, Easter was a bust, with the industry losing 18,000 million euros over the Semana Santa.  

The Canaries, a traditional tourist destination, where 87% of visitors are foreigners, expects to lose around 80% of its usual visitor numbers in 2020, says the regional government, which means a forecasted loss of 30% of the islands’ GDP. A similar situation awaits Mallorca.

Tourism, says El Confidencial gloomily, will return to the España of the fifties.